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KAFP 3535 - Demographic Change : Past Evolutions, Recent Trends and Future Prospects

Type d'enseignement : Lecture alone

Semester : Spring 2017-2018

Number of hours : 40

Language of tuition : English



Course Description

The objective of the course is to give a broad overview of the major demographic evolutions, either past, recent, or future. Demographers have developed a set of theories, concepts, and tools to measure and understand the change in populations' size and structure. They are organized around core demographic processes of attrition and renewal: fertility, mortality, and migrations. Understanding of these processes relies on a host of factors. Socioeconomic factors but also biological factors and, of course, policies are strong determinants of demographic behaviours. Both causes and consequences of demographic changes will be examined. Basic indicators used for the measurement of population dynamics will be presented in order to provide students with the ability to read tables and graphs. Attention will be paid to pitfalls in the interpretation of figures as they are routinely published and discussed in a variety of settings.


  • DESESQUELLES, Aline (Chercheur)
  • HAGEGE, Meoïn A. (Contractuel)
  • HERAN, François (Directeur de recherche)
  • MESLE, France (Directeur de recherche)
  • TOULEMON, Laurent (Directeur de recherche)
  • VERON, Jacques

Pedagogical format

The course consists of 7 lectures by the main instructor and 5 conferences by guest teachers.

Course validation

1) Brief demographic report (maximum: 4,000 signs including spaces). Select a topic that has/have had/will/may have demographic implications (e.g. crisis/exceptional event - war, heat wave, sudden migration flows- , long-term societal change, adoption of certain laws, scientific discovery, etc.) and give the demographic data (main indicators and figures) related to it. Deadline: session #8. 2) Extended report (maximum: 20,000 signs including spaces) on the same topic focusing on the political implications/debate related to it. Deadline: last session.


Readings should be done for the session in which they are listed. Lectures will start with an in-class discussion of these short papers (to be found on the Ined website): Session 2 : readings 1&2. Session 5 : readings 3&4. Session 7 : readings 5&6. Session 9: readings 7&8.

Required reading

  • “What length of life did our forebears have?” / Claude Masset, Population and Societies, n° 380, June 2002
  • “A spectacular decline in influenza mortality: the role of vaccination” / France Meslé, Population and Societies, n° 470, September 2010
  • More than half of the global population lives where fertility is below replacement level” / Chris Wilson, Gilles Pison, Population and Societies, n° 405, October 2004
  • “The end of one child per family in China?” / Isabelle Attané, Population and Societies, n° 535, July 2016
  • How many people live alone in France?” / Sophie Pennec, Laurent Toulemon, Population and Societies, n° 484, December 2011