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OAEN 2595 - Gas investment evaluation

Type d'enseignement : Seminar

Semester : Spring 2017-2018

Number of hours : 24

Language of tuition : English

Voir les plans de cours et bibliographies

Pre-requisite

aucun

Course Description

The course will look into real case studies to show students the actual risks/rewards in the gas industry.
Objective of the course : students should be able to understand the different risks facing this industry and should be able to implement risk mitigation to allow a good project to go ahead.

Xls is only a tool to be used for evaluation. This course doesn't deal with xls but with the major risks/rewards of projects. Students interested in xls should not take this course.

Teachers

BROS, Thierry (Senior Research Fellow - Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)

Pedagogical format

6 course sessions (n° 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 9). 2 interactive sessions where students will have to come up with gas price forecast (n° 9) and selection of best project (n° 12). 4 presentation sessions (n° 6, 7, 10 and 11).

Course validation

Students will work in small groups on dedicated real case studies. Detailed grading explained at each course level.

Workload

5h of research work (students only able to access public information as bank analysts) + 1h design for each presentation.
2h for each written report.
The reading of the IEA WEO is assumed to be done prior to the course.

Required reading

  • Students will have to search the web for info on companies / projects as those are real case studies
  • WEO 2017, IEA (compulsory)
  • LNG Markets in Transition: The Great Reconfiguration, Oxford
  • After the US shale gas revolution – T. Bros – Editions Technip

Plans de cours et bibliographies

Xls is only a tool to be used for evaluation. This course doesn't deal with xls but with the major risks/rewards of projects. Students interested in xls should not take this course.

Session 1: Why evaluating projects?

  • Powerpoint presentation on risks/rewards

Session 2: Presentation of the 6 real case studies (FID projects)

  • Powerpoint presentation
  • Students will work in small groups on dedicated real case studies
  • Students will have to search the web for info on companies / projects as those are real case studies.
  • Students will have to provide a written summary of all other presentations with their own selection according to their own criteria of the best project to invest now.

Session 3: Projects competitions in gas (supply-demand-prices and costs)

  • Powerpoint presentation

Session 4: Investors dropping too expensive projects (demand price elasticity)

  • Powerpoint presentation

Session 5: Investors views of projects (tolling vs. upstream risks, risk mitigation)

  • Powerpoint presentation

Session 6: Presentation of the 3 first projects and the companies (20 min * 3) + Q&A (10min * 3)

  • Each presentation should not last more than the allowed 20min (30% of grading for student presenting). Respecting the time allocated is part of the exercise and will be also taken into account in the evaluation. A general debate will conclude the session.

Session 7: Presentation of the 3 last projects and the companies (20 min * 3) + Q&A (10min * 3)

  • Each presentation should not last more than the allowed 20min (30% of grading for student presenting). Respecting the time allocated is part of the exercise and will be also taken into account in the evaluation. A general debate will conclude the session.

Session 8: Presentation of 6 non-FID projects

  • Powerpoint presentation

Session 9: Following reading of the WEO 2017, students will have to design a worldwide gas scenario for 2025

  • Interactive sessions where students will have to come up with gas price forecast after having read the WEO 2017.

Session 10: Presentation of the 3 first projects (20 min * 3) +Q&A (10min * 3)

  • Students should be able to understand the different risks facing this industry and should be able to implement risk mitigation to allow a good project to go ahead
  • Each presentation should not last more than the allowed 20min (30% of grading for student presenting). Respecting the time allocated is part of the exercise and will be also taken into account in the evaluation. A general debate will conclude the session.

Session 11: Presentation of the 3 last projects (20 min * 3) + Q&A (10min *3)

  • Students should be able to understand the different risks facing this industry and should be able to implement risk mitigation to allow a good project to go ahead
  • Each presentation should not last more than the allowed 20min (30% of grading for student presenting). Respecting the time allocated is part of the exercise and will be also taken into account in the evaluation. A general debate will conclude the session.

Session 12: Selection of the best project

  • Interactive sessions where students will have to select the best project

Important details regarding the grading system and course assignment:

  • Each student will have to provide, before the last session, a 5-page paper report ranking all other FID projects (40% grading) according to his/her own view/methodology. Late reports will not be considered.
  • The presentations will be rigorously scheduled and failing in presenting (for whatever reason) would be detrimental for the whole quality of the class – as students' participation is important as much as the lecturer intervention.
  • Attendance and active participation will be taken into great consideration. In registering into the course, students will engage in being present and cooperative throughout the whole semester.

Biographical information

Dr. Thierry Bros is a senior research fellow of The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (the world leading independent energy institute specializing in advanced research into the economics and politics of international energy), a member of the EU-Russia Gas Advisory Council and an advisor to the World Energy Council - Global Gas Centre. He is also a senior energy expert at Energy Delta Institute, a visiting professor at Sciences Po Paris and an academic consultant to CEG practice dealing with gas disputes. Furthermore, Thierry regularly trains professionals for the trade association of the French gas industry (CFAFG). Thierry is also an advisory board member to Natural Gas World an independent specialized website dedicated to global gas matter and a contributor on Smartkarma.com.
In 2016, he founded thierrybros.com to provide independent research, advice, training & expertise on energy markets after 25 years in the energy field, from the policy side to trading floors. Thierry is highly regarded by the energy community, notably accredited as the best European gas analyst for five years in a row (2013-2017). In his book “After the US shale gas revolution”, published in 2012, Thierry rightly forecasted that the surge in US oil and gas production combined with European energy efficiency was going to deeply alter the energy and geopolitical landscapes. He is also a co-author of the book "The European Gas Markets: Challenges and Opportunities", published in 2017.
Thierry Bros holds a Master of chemical engineering from ESPCI ParisTech and a PhD from Ecole Centrale Paris.