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OCAF 2155 - African Key Economic Issues, Beyond Debates, Facts And Data

Type d'enseignement : Seminar

Semester : Autumn 2017-2018

Number of hours : 24

Language of tuition : English

Voir les plans de cours et bibliographies

Pre-requisite

Basic knowledge in macroeconomics, national account and balance of payments data and growth theory.

Course Description

This course aims at giving an overview of some key issue for Sub-Saharan Africa: main vulnerabilities (the three curses of Africa: demography, geopolitical situation, natural resources dependency, what could be the long term development model at this juncture, how it could be financed and how is designed an IMF program in SSA. Based on empirical evidence and case studies, this course has the ambition through interactive discussions to enlighten these debates and to dispute some preconceived ideas or common beliefs. Mainly empirical country risk, geopolitical, economic policy and macroeconomic analysis.

Teachers

CABRILLAC, Bruno (Directeur des relations internationales et européennes)

Course validation

-1/3 participation

-1/3 take home exam (mid-term)

-1/3 MCQ end of semester (in class)

Required reading

See course outline

Plans de cours et bibliographies

Part 1: The 3 curses of Sub-Saharan Africa

Session 1: Demographic dividend or demographic curse?
Reading:

Session 2: Geopolitical curse of artificial borders: fragmentation and bad governance, fragile states and nations.
Reading:

  • The worldwide Governance Indicator project (World Bank website)

Session 3: Natural resource curse in SSA: a tropical Dutch Disease? Case study: Gabon and Congo-Brazzaville.
Reading:

  • The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions, J. Frenkel, 2012

Part 2: Long term development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Session 4: The East Asian miracle a model for SSA?
Reading:

  • Rethinking the East Asian Miracle, J. Stiglitz, 200. Case study: Ethiopia

Session 5: Why has SSA missed the MDG and what is needed to reach the SDG.
Reading:

  • The Addis Ababa Action Agenda.

Session 6: Is there a case for an infrastructure boost in Africa or will we repeat past errors?
Reading:

  • PIDA on AfDB website

PART 3: Financing development in SSA

Session 7: Dead Aid, Tyranny of experts or The End of Poverty?
Reading:

  • D. Moyo, “Dead Aid”; W. Easterly, “The Tyranny of Experts”; J. Sachs, “The End of Poverty”.

Session 8: "God helps those who help themselves": mobilizing domestic resources for development.
Reading:

  • Financing Sustainable development, P. Guillaumont et alii, FERDI, 2015

Part 4: Macroeconomics in SSA

Session 9: Data gaps, misrepresentation and misunderstanding.

  • Case study: Chad and Equatorial Guinea

Session 10 & 11: Macroeconomic adjustment in SSA countries: how to build an IMF program?

  • Case study: Chad.

Reading:

  • Last IMF reports on Chad (IMF website)

Session 12: Monetary and exchange rate policies in SSA.

Case study: Zone Franc.

Reading:

  • IMF website background information on CFA franc zone.

Short biography

Mr. Cabrillac graduated from Institute of Political Sciences in Paris, from University of Montpellier (law) and from University of Paris-Pantheon (economics and econometrics). Mr. Cabrillac joined the Bank of France (Central Bank) in 1984 as an economist in the Foreign Relation Department, then in the Research and Forecast Department. He was seconded to the Ministry of Finance as Financial Counsellor in Cairo (1989-1992) and Tokyo (1994-1996), Trade Commissioner in Hong Kong (2002-2005) and Counsellor for Africa (2005-2008). Since October 2008, he has been Director of economics and international and European relations at the Bank of France.