Accueil > Asia in 2030: prospective analysis on the economic and social challenges

OCAS 2075 - Asia in 30 years: Prospective Analysis of the Economic and Social Challenges

Type d'enseignement : Seminar

Semester : Spring 2017-2018

Number of hours : 24

Language of tuition : English

Voir les plans de cours et bibliographies

Pre-requisite

aucun

Course Description

What will be the future of Asia? What will it look like in 2030 and beyond? The course will be based on methodologies of prospective analysis covering five groups of issues: - Economic power and its human dimension: GDP, population, urbanization and infrastructures, wealth and inequalities - How to change the growth model : energy, land and natural resources, environment, climate change - The competitive challenge: cost and non-cost competitivity, innovation, governance - The intra and extra regional dynamics: trade, investment, cooperation versus confrontation, finance - The human and political dimension: women in Asia, geopolitical risks, the future of democracy in Asia
The objective is to train students in an economic and social forward-looking analysis focused on the Asian continent, by familiarizing them with all the information sources and the methodologies used by the international organizations and think tank.
The main documentation will be provided under the form of an USB key during the first session. It will include reports, papers and data covering the twelve chapters of the course. Students are advised to read in particular a report from the Asian Development Bank (accessible on its website), called “Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century”. No specific reading expected before the beginning of the course.

Teachers

TESTARD, Hubert (Conseiller général économique et financier)

Pedagogical format

Through an interactive process including teacher's presentations and group presentations by students, written contributions and interactive sessions, the students will be asked to analyse a number of global reports from the relevant multilateral institutions (UNDP,UNCTAD, IEA, WIPO, WTO, OECD, IMF, World Bank, regional banks, …) and to get a better understanding of their approach, methodology and findings as far as Asia is concerned. They will also look at a selection of national policy debates related to these mega-trends (for example aging in Japan, immigration in Singapore, innovation in India, climate change in China, commercial policy in Indonesia…). The whole purpose of the course is to help students understand the methodologies of prospective analysis, and the main economic and social challenges facing Asia, with a focus on intra and inter regional challenges rather than a pure country to country analysis.

Course validation

Evaluation of the students will be based on the following elements: - 50% Oral presentations or debates. Each student will have to make one presentation or take part in a debate, with one or more other students (depending on the number of students attending the course). The evaluation will be based on the clarity, coherence and pertinence of content, its adequacy to the purpose of the session, the speakers' oral skills and techniques, and the respect of timing, and for debaters the quality of exchange with the group. There will be only one score for each event. - 50% written individual essays. Each student will have to write one essay. The purpose of these essays is to bring additional information or elements of analysis on a certain topic. The essays will be distributed to all students. The evaluation will be based on the quality and pertinence of the essay, and the extent of personal research associated to it (further elements of evaluation will be provided at the beginning of the course). There will be three deadlines for delivering the essays during the course (timing of session 4, session 8 and session 11). A list of subjects will be provided at the beginning of the course, with three groups of subjects by deadline.

Workload

The main preparatory work will be for oral presentations or debates and for written essays (one of each per student). Students are encouraged to have a look at the material provided for each session.

Plans de cours et bibliographies

  • Session 1: General presentation of Asia long term challenges. Organization of work for the next sessions, quick overview of sources and methodologies.
  • Session 2: GDP long term growth trends and related issues (middle income trap, potential growth…).
  • Session 3: Population trends and related issues (aging, migrations)
  • Session 4:  Urbanization and infrastructures.
  • Session 5: Women in Asia (politics, education, work, private life)
  • Session 6: Wealth, middle class, inequalities and poverty.
  • Session 7: Energy and environment.
  • Session 8: Climate Change. The debate on democracy.
  • Session 9: Cost and non-cost competitivity. Innovation.
  • Session 10: Trade and investment trends. Free trade agreements in Asia.
  • Session 11: Geo-political risks. The South China Sea dilemma and border disputes in Asia.
  • Session 12: Finance (centered on internationalisation of the yuan and on debt). Creative session on “Perceiving China through a color spectrum”, with the help of an imagination consultant.

short biography

Hubert Testard spent most of his career in the Treasury Department of the Ministry of finance. He lived 20 years in Asia, working as economic and financial affairs counsellor in Korea, Japan, China and Singapore, and the other half with various positions in the Treasury, the European Affairs Minister’s cabinet (at the time of the Maastricht treaty negotiations), and the Planning Staff of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Hubert Testard a graduate from Sciences Po Paris and ENA. He published in 2014 a book called “When China invests in France” edited in French and Chinese by the French Invest in France Agency (AFII, now BusinessFrance).