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OAGR 2045 - Risk Analysis & Crisis Management

Type d'enseignement : Seminar

Semester : Autumn 2018-2019

Number of hours : 24

Language of tuition : English

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Students should, as much as possible, already possess a good knowledge of international relations and political science; if they do not have it, then they will need to catch up by reading more. To enjoy thinking out of the box and dynamically will be a plus to appreciate the Syllabus.

Course Description

This course is designed to provide students with the opportunity to engage and think about the future and how to approach it within the context of traditional and non-traditional, national and international security issues in a complex world. Throughout the semester, students will have the opportunity to reflect critically upon the theoretical, conceptual and methodological underpinnings of risk management and strategic foresight and warning, to familiarise themselves with existing methodologies and reports through real-world case studies addressing contemporary security issues and global crises. Finally, they will apply the understanding acquired through a series of exercises designed as a group(s) project on a topic they will have selected.


LAVOIX, Hélène (Directrice, The Red (Team) Analysis Society)

Pedagogical format

A lecture followed : by students presentation and then discussion on a specific topic for the first part of the course ; by students' presentations of their group(s) work. The group(s) work allows for application of what has been taught for the second part, as well as discussions and explanations regarding the group(s) work. Students are very strongly encouraged to take notes during the lecture, as proper note-taking is a crucial skill to develop, which will be extremely useful for the rest of their professional life, notably if it involves analysis.

Course validation

Class Presentation (45 percent): The class presentation will address, for the week chosen by the student, the topic outlined in bold as class discussion, as detailed and explained in the syllabus below, week after week. It will present, for the group(s) project part (second part of the course) the result of the week's work for the group. Class participation (20 percent): Students will be expected to actively participate in the seminar discussions and to prepare each week the assignments. Contribution to the group project (35 percent): Each week, all students are required to contribute to the group(s) project for the second part of the course. Students will hand in on week 11 a brief assessment of the group work, including the difficulties they met – or not – with their colleagues. The assessments will remain anonymous – i.e. not shared with other students – but be used for the final debriefing regarding group work. Students are encouraged to bring in knowledge and understanding acquired in other courses and/or through experience.


Between 6 and 10 hours a week.

Required reading

  • Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon, ed. The Millennium Project: Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0
  • Various chapters will be used according to the theme of the sessions over the semester. A detailed bibliography with specific required and recommanded readings according to weeks will be provided to students during the first session

Plans de cours et bibliographies